Trump claims US control over Hormuz, impacting Iran peace deal prospects

Trump’s Truth Social posts declaring US control over the Strait of Hormuz have pushed odds for Iran diplomatic meetings by May 31 down to 73% YES, from 82% twenty-four hours ago.

The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 market dropped sharply to 9.5% YES, down from 18% yesterday. Trump’s hardline stance on Hormuz makes a rapid diplomatic breakthrough less likely on any timeline. The May 31 peace deal odds fell to 38.5% from 52% a day ago, as traders price in extended tensions.

The diplomatic meetings market traded $27,582 in USDC over the last 24 hours. The permanent peace deal market saw $433,823 in USDC traded. Order book depth is moderate: $8,549 would move the diplomatic odds 5 points.

At 38.5%, the May 31 peace deal market implies a 2.6x payout on a YES share if a deal materializes. Trump’s rhetoric has consistently reinforced a hardline posture, and traders would need concrete diplomatic moves, such as a mediator’s involvement or a change in Iran’s leadership dynamics, to reassess these odds.

Watch for Trump’s upcoming statements and any third-party mediation efforts from Pakistan or Oman. Either could shift these markets quickly.

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