Trump navigates Iran ceasefire as Hormuz closure tightens oil supply fears

President Trump is trying to navigate a rocky ceasefire deal with Iran while the Strait of Hormuz re-closes. The US-Iran permanent peace deal market for April 22 sits at 17% YES, down from 40% just yesterday.

The permanent peace deal by April 30 market is at 32.5% YES, showing skepticism despite Trump’s efforts. The term structure shows traders expect a bigger catalyst by May 31, where odds jump to 56.5% YES. The diplomatic meeting by April 30 contract is priced at just 13% YES.

Iran’s control of Hormuz tightens oil supply fears, but WTI crude hitting $160 in April trades at only 1.4% YES. The largest single price move in this market was a 25-point spike, showing how sensitive these contracts are to new information.

Trump’s ceasefire push and threats to Iranian infrastructure are running in parallel. The permanent peace deal market has swung widely, and traders appear to be positioning around mid-term developments rather than immediate headlines. A YES share at 17¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 5x return, but confidence is low without concrete diplomatic progress.

Watch Vice President JD Vance’s negotiations in Pakistan closely. Any sign of a formal agreement or a diplomatic meeting will shift these odds quickly.

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