Dubbed the ‘greatest humourist the United States has produced’, Samuel Langhorne Clemens, known better by his pen name Mark Twain, is probably best known for the characters of Tom Sawyer and Huckleberry Finn.
For investors, it’s one of Twain’s lesser-known creations, Pudd’nhead Wilson, the titular character who gives his view on the month of October when investing:
“October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.”
Although Twain’s views on the stock market are meant to be sarcastic, they do in fact have a ring of truth to them. Since the beginning of the 20th century, plenty of market cycles have seen a dip in performance during this month.
The idea could have gained traction after the great Banking Panic of 1907, an event that led to multiple bank runs and heavy selling at the US stock exchange. All that prevented a serious financial crash was the work of a banking consortium to provide major funding to New York itself, during what was a notoriously cold October in the Big Apple.
The stock market crash that led to the US Great Depression of 1929 – a financial disaster on an unparalleled scale – began on 24 October, Black Thursday, with the market losing 11% of its value in frantic trading. Black Tuesday occurred the following week, seeing a loss of over 23% in just two days.
The black days of October have continued in more recent times, with Black Monday in 1987. On 16 October that year, all markets closed in London due to adverse weather but, after they re-opened, the speed of the crash accelerated. By midday, the UK blue chip index had dropped by 14% and a further 11% the following day – some of the largest losses on record.
Domestic stocks then continued to fall, albeit at a less precipitous rate, reaching a trough in mid-November at 36% below their pre-crash peak, not recovering until 1989.
Although October has had its fair share of market mishaps over the years, it’s interesting to note the month has historically heralded the end of more bear markets than the beginning. In fact, October gets a poor rap when considering most investors have probably lived through a range of highly volatile months.
The fact of the matter is that terrible market events do not all cluster in one particular month. If they did, it would make an investor’s job that much easier.
Maybe it’s Mark Twain’s fault, maybe it’s just investor psychology but October, despite hosting Halloween, should be no scarier for investors than any other month of the year.
Perhaps it’s just a difference in lexicon between the British and our American cousins. After all, anyone from North America will tell you with glee that October hails the start of the fall – just not necessarily for financial markets.
Of course, despite volatility and extreme market events, investing over the long term remains a tried-and-tested route for investors and good outcomes.
Thomas Watts is senior investment analyst on Abrdn’s MPS team
